JUSTIN SCHON asks whether the vision of a unified Africa is anything more than a pipe dream.

Upon being elected head of the African Union in early February 2009, 40 years after taking up the Libyan presidency, Muammar Gaddafi reiterated his call for the formation of a United States of Africa. The notion of a single pan-African government was first mooted by the former Ghanaian president Kwame Nkrumah, who led the country to independence in 1957, but Gaddafi has for many years adopted the idea as his flagship project.

A united Africa would mean one currency, a unified military, and a single passport for the entire continent. The idea is controversial - indeed, Kathryn Sturman of the South African Institute of International Affairs refers to it as a “ludicrous fantasy on the part of Gaddafi” - but it demonstrates a real concern among many African leaders: If Africa does not come together, it will never be able to compete with Europe and the United States in terms of wealth and power. With this in mind, one wonders whether it is indeed possible for Africa to unite, and if so, whether a united Africa will really be able to rival the power of the current giants. Perhaps a more pressing question regards another superpower: How will the continent fare if it doesn’t unite to tame the Dragon.

THE EUROPEAN EXAMPLE

As Africa looks to unite, many proponents of the idea are looking to the formation of the European Union (EU) as a model for Africa, and as an example of the conditions that help bring countries together. Following World War II, the European continent was able to agree that the time had come for cooperation. It was time for peace and for working together for reconstruction, so there was a strong desire to initiate stronger cooperation. The period of peace after World War II allowed its countries the stability to focus on matters beyond mere state survival. Additionally, the looming Soviet threat meant that the United States was willing to throw substantial and vital resources behind the ideas that led to the European Union’s formation. As for the process of integration itself, leaders in Europe realised very quickly that it had to be gradual. The EU has been in piecemeal formation since at least 1951, when 6 states came together to form a coal and steel common market. Although many very likely wanted much more rapid integration, they were practical enough to realise that attempts at integration that happened too quickly would surely collapse.

THE AFRICAN REALITY

Unfortunately for those that share Gaddafi’s vision, the most widely held view is that Africa is not ready for a United States of Africa just yet. Gaddafi himself has stated that African leaders are “not near to a settlement” on the issue. Conflict and instability still plague the continent, from the Democratic Republic of Congo to Sudan to Somalia. Africa also currently lacks the kind of benefactor that Europe found in the United States. To find a power that could provide a comparable level of support, Africa would have to look towards the EU, USA or China, none of which has really stepped up yet. While China has indeed been stepping up its involvement in Africa, its foreign policy objectives appear to be based on economic benefit rather than any sort of benevolence. Finally Africa, unlike Europe, does not have the common external threat against whom to unite.

SUCCESSFUL INTEGRATION: NO GUARANTEE TO POWER EQUITY

Assuming that a United States of Africa does come into being, there is still the question of whether it will ever have economic and military power comparable to the United States or the European Union. Economically, Africa clearly has a long way to go. While the United States’ GDP in 2008 was just over US$14 trillion and the European Union’s 27 members had a combined GDP of over US$16.5 trillion, the combined GDP for Africa was just over US$3 trillion. Africa’s economic development has been severely hampered by violence, conflict and corruption, but if it can overcome those obstacles to development, it has a lot of potential for growth. As Gaddafi has stated, “[Africans] want not to be poor or weak, to beg at the gates of the people in the rich world. Africa has the resources, material and human. Africa has the huge and endless resources and has the capability to become a superpower in the world if united.” Possibly the most important sector in this regard is natural resources. The African continent’s wealth of resources could, used wisely, finance substantial efforts at infrastructure development, improving public health and establishing many other improvements for African people. Such improvements would then help develop and strengthen other sectors of the economy, causing substantial growth. While significant reforms and wise policies would be needed, this fate is possible for Africa.

Militarily, the relationship is even more lopsided. Not only is there not a single African country that has nuclear weapons, but not one has an air force or navy that can seriously stand up to the United States or Europe. The United States has a defence budget of over $500 billion for 2009, and even the UK had a budget of over $50 billion for 2008. No African country spends as much on defence per year. As such, not only are African military capabilities weaker than those of Europe or the United States, but countries’ lack of expenditure means they will be unable ever to match Western development.

The point is that Africa may be capable of uniting, but it has several real obstacles to overcome. Its integration has the highest chance of success if it is gradual, allowing states to adjust at a comfortable pace over time. Although the prospects of an equally powerful military look bleak, once united Africa may be capable of eventually attaining an equal economic footing with the United States or the EU. At the very least, it would be a more powerful continent united than divided. Whether Gaddafi, with his penchant for the grandiose, is the man to lead the continent into a new era is doubtful, however.

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Justin Schon is majoring in political studies. He spent the semester at UCT from the University of Michigan.